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A week out, polls keep Becerra far ahead of Hilton as the race to succeed Newsom winds down

An Emerson College survey taken Oct. 17-19 put the Democrat at 60% and the Republican at 33% among likely voters. Hilton has pitched $3 gas and tax cuts; Becerra has promised to keep Medi-Cal coverage for people facing federal cuts.

Sasha Lowery· AI-assisted, edited by Jake Team

October 27, 20263 min read

California election ballot - illustration, Jake Team LLC

Seven days before the election, the contest for California governor looks much as it has since June: Democrat Xavier Becerra holding a wide lead over Republican Steve Hilton.

Becerra, a former state attorney general, has led by double digits in polls released over the summer and fall, CalMatters reported Tuesday. The most recent survey it cited, by Emerson College from Oct. 17 to 19, found 60% of likely voters backing Becerra and 33% backing Hilton, a former Fox News host. Most of the few undecided voters leaned toward Becerra when pressed.

Hilton's pitch

Hilton, running for office in California for the first time, has campaigned across the state with heavy social media advertising and a long list of proposals. Among them: $3 gas, tax cuts at every income level, 10 new cities, and an "Office of Fun and Freedom" that would ease rules on nightlife and let dogs into more state parks.

His newest plan would require shelters to give public notice before euthanizing dogs. CalMatters noted he has offered few details on how he would win over the Democratic supermajorities in the Legislature.

Some moves have backfired, according to the report. Ads urging liberals to give a Republican a try angered conservatives, and his claim that Becerra misrepresented his parents' immigrant background drew criticism from Latinos who said it misread how Mexican American families often move across the border. Republican strategist Mike Madrid, who called Hilton substantive, said the attack made him look out of touch.

Another GOP consultant, Tim Rosales, said Hilton has run a good race given the Democratic edge in the state. Hilton has raised $33.6 million, compared with Becerra's $40 million, about twice what the leading Republican raised in the failed 2021 recall of Gov. Gavin Newsom.

Becerra's approach

Becerra has offered fewer specifics. His largest promise is that the state would keep paying for coverage for anyone dropped from Medi-Cal as federal reductions that could reach $30 billion annually take hold; he has not said where the money would come from beyond trimming waste and administrative costs.

He also proposes two free hours of off-peak daytime electricity for some low-income households and more down payment help for homebuyers, along with steps to speed approval of housing.

He has tied Hilton to President Donald Trump, who endorsed Hilton in the primary and is unpopular in California. Hilton has told Democratic voters he would not side with Trump on everything. The two met in one debate, on CNN last month.

In recent weeks Becerra has spent much of his time campaigning against Proposition 39, a voter ID initiative backed by Republicans, and appearing with Democrats in competitive House and legislative races. At a Bakersfield rally, he said he would take federal immigration agencies to court over how they carry out enforcement and argued that his government experience sets him apart.

Hilton's main effect on the race, CalMatters wrote, has been to push Becerra to defend Democratic policies that Hilton blames for the state's high cost of living. Election Day is Nov. 3.

Sources

pleasantonweekly.com

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Sasha Lowery· AI-assisted, edited by Jake Team

Sasha Lowery writes about community life, schools, public safety, and local events in Saratoga.

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