The wholesale charge for groundwater in north Santa Clara County could climb from $2,673 an acre-foot today to between about $4,900 and $8,200 before it levels off in the 2040s, according to long-range financial models Valley Water staff prepared for the district board's Tuesday meeting.
The projections, presented by Chief Financial Officer Darin Taylor, are for information only. The slides say staff made no recommendation and the board took no action on them. They set the stage for the rate-setting cycle that begins in January.
What drives the range
Staff modeled seven scenarios for the north county zone, called W-2. Each adds projects to the one before:
- The base case, with Rinconada Water Treatment Plant upgrades, the Anderson Dam seismic retrofit and pipeline and treatment upgrades, peaks around $4,913 an acre-foot.
- Adding the dam safety program for Almaden, Calero, Coyote and Guadalupe dams pushes the peak to about $5,510.
- Adding the Sisk Dam raise, the Delta Conveyance Project and Sites Reservoir brings it to about $6,521.
- Adding the full-scale Pure Water Silicon Valley purification plant lifts it to about $8,092, and adding groundwater banking to about $8,193.
The slides say charges in every scenario peak near fiscal year 2047, then level off and fall as construction needs drop. Outstanding debt would peak around 2039 at $4.4 billion to $7.8 billion, depending on the scenario. The district's March 2025 long-range projection for the comparable full scenario reached $9,981 an acre-foot.
The base assumptions include a recent $800 million cost increase for the Anderson Dam retrofit, staff noted.